The NEDA (national economic and construction Authority) lately introduced that the poverty headcount in the first semester of 2018 reached 21% as compared to 27.6% in the same duration of 2015.
Is it time to rejoice?
right through the whole 12 months of 2015, poverty incidence turned into 21.6%. with the aid of basic extrapolation, the 2nd semester figure fell to most effective 15.6%.
INFLATION AND POVERTYWhat can be the main factors of the decline? i can speculate. The usual food inflation right through the primary half of 2015 changed into 4%. It went down to 1.2% in the 2nd half and giving a full yr of 2.5%. against this, food inflation in 2018 was greater at 5.5% in first half, and worse at eight.2% in the 2d half. (See desk 1.)
UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNDEREMPLOYMENT AND POVERTYMeanwhile, unemployment and underemployment a little worsened in 2015. in contrast, it went down in 2018. (See desk 2.)
In 2015, the poverty incidence dropped dramatically from 27.6% within the first half to an estimated 15.6% in the 2nd half with a 0.eight percent-aspect boost in total unemployment and underemployment and a deceleration in food inflation.
2018Given the high inflation in the second half of 2018, the influence on poverty incidence become extreme on bad. In contrast, the 1.5 percent-elements reduction in unemployment and underemployment had a positive affect on poverty incidence. It is probably going that poverty incidence had steadied in the 2nd half? At 21%?
Add to that, agriculture growth turned into anemic: 0.9 p.c in 2018 from nearly zero in 2015.
in this gentle, the poverty incidence would have barely moved between 2015 and 2018. this is my crystal ball. The country ought to work harder to attain the building Plan goal of 14% in 2022.
this text reflects the personal opinion of the author and does not mirror the respectable stand of the administration association of the Philippines or the MAP.
Rolando T. Dy is the Co-Vice Chair of the MAP AgriBusiness Committee and the executive Director of the middle for meals and AgriBusiness of the college of Asia & the Pacific.
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