The Resurgence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan – The ...

in this December 17, 2014 file photograph, a Pakistan army soldier inspects the military Public college that turned into attacked a day earlier than by Taliban gunmen, in Peshawar, Pakistan.

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within the first week of July, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militant firm introduced the return of the Hakimullah Mehsud group to its fold. The faction and a couple of others just like the Mehsud division led with the aid of Khan noted "Sajna" and the Jamaatul Ahrar neighborhood commanded by using Omar Khalid Khurasani splintered from the TTP in 2014 following violent inter-factional feuds after then-Emir Hakimullah Mehsud's death in a U.S. drone strike. Compounded through the executive's launching of Operation Zarb-e-Azb in the equal yr, this reduced the TTP to a shadow of its former self. The alliance of Islamist outfits primarily based in Pakistan's erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) had plunged the nation into unparalleled stages of violence after its formation in 2007. This covered splendid plots such because the assault on the Karachi airport in June 2014 and the Peshawar military faculty assault in December 2014.

The return of the Hakimullah Mehsud faction is via no capacity unparalleled, given trends such because the merger of the Sajna faction in 2017 and the rehabilitation of the Jamaatul Ahrar outfit inside the framework of the TTP's ideology in 2015, albeit with a very good diploma of operational independence. furthermore, the TTP has incurred big leadership losses in the past two years, together with the killing of the previous emir, Mullah Fazlullah, in June 2018 and the death of former Deputy Chief Khalid Haqqani in February, and has maintained a muted operational presence even in past strongholds reminiscent of Pakistan's North and South Waziristan, where its aspects managed to return in 2018-19 after being dislodged as a result of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, and later, Operation Radd-ul-Fassad. Yet, the TTP remains resilient because of a number of elements.

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Fazlullah's demise apparently catalyzed a manner of changes through the TTP Markazi Majlis-e-Shura (crucial Advisory Committee) with the goal of centralizing manage over various sub-organizations, broadly speaking via defining ideological and operational boundaries. This was evidenced by using the succession of a Mehsud tribesman, Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud, to reunite warring factions, when you consider that hostilities came to the fore in 2013-14 with the elevation of Fazlullah, a non-Mehsud from outdoor the tribal areas. the entire TTP's emirs before Fazlullah had been from the Mehsud tribe. The theme of internal changes geared towards consolidation became then seen in the release of a code of behavior in September 2018, which laid out the TTP's strategy and features of authority whereas codifying elements such as the community's goal selection.

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Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud's management has its pleasing set of benefits for the TTP, chief among which is his obvious emphasis on alliance-constructing. aside from being a combat-hardened jihadist, he possesses the skills of having a robust intellectual grounding in the TTP's core Deobandi ideas via advantage of his journey as a spiritual student and a creator, and this is probably a key part of his outreach as well as his appeal among a number of constituent organizations and dissident factions. The circumstances surrounding the Hakimullah Mehsud community's return undergo testament to this. in response to sources, greater than 13 TTP functionaries, including individuals of the Hakimullah Mehsud group, had been killed through unidentified assailants in the Kunar and Nangarhar provinces of neighboring Afghanistan over may additionally-June.

whereas there are a couple of possible explanations for this violence, the indisputable fact that the Hakimullah Mehsud group became to TTP significant throughout the sort of time of disaster shows a way of self assurance in Mufti Noor Wali's leadership, other than the underlying pragmatism in the back of this shift. His persevered function at the helm may see the TTP additional its position in South and North Waziristan, bolstered via skills defections of Islamic State commanders from areas reminiscent of Kurram and Khyber again to the community.

Ties to Broader Jihadist Networks in Af-Pak vicinity

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A video released at the beginning of the yr by the TTP once again renewed the center of attention on its wide ties to jihadist groups in the broader Afghanistan-Pakistan place, together with the Afghan Taliban, al-Qaeda, and the Haqqani community. that includes a tribute to Hakimullah Mehsud, the release also paid homage to jihadist heavyweights equivalent to Osama bin weighted down and Taliban founder Mullah Omar. These links are a crucial driving force behind the TTP's survival in the face of improved safety cooperation between Pakistan and the U.S. in 2019, leading to Islamabad's counterterrorism reach extending to the outfit's strongholds in the Loya Paktia and Kunar areas of Afghanistan. other than being ideological companions and offering a secure haven for TTP commanders in Afghanistan, these corporations have traditionally additionally liaised with the outfit in operational phrases.

The TTP's Future Outlook 

The return of the Hakimullah Mehsud group is just the latest signal of the TTP's ambitions. within the near-to-medium time period, the neighborhood is only likely to grow more suitable, extra so given the present regional and domestic circumstances which can be conducive to this. Domestically, the flagging financial system in Pakistan and the executive's haphazard measures to mitigate the outcomes of COVID-19 are expected to lift tiers of disaffection among vulnerable sections, helping the recruitment prospects of businesses just like the TTP. this is specifically central for Pashtun populations across areas within the former FATA belt, the place many years of developmental forget about from the center have already deepened anti-executive sentiment. The TTP is primarily more likely to use COVID-19 to further its aims, as hinted by way of its anti-Semitic allegation that the pandemic is a conspiracy spearheaded by means of Jews.

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government led by using top Minister Imran Khan also looks to be courting assist from the hardline Islamist foyer to retain steadiness all over these trying out times, considered in Khan's contemporary reference to bin laden as a "martyr" and the compromise with Lal Masjid cleric Maulana Abdul Aziz in February. This might also create area for TTP aspects to ramp up domestic outreach and consolidation, even in Sindh and Punjab provinces, by using leveraging the commonplace pool of operatives primarily based out of Deobandi seminaries. It continues to be to be viewed how a ways Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud's alliance-building will take the TTP, besides the fact that children the future reintegration of splinter companies like Hizbul Ahrar isn't completely out of query.

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As regards regional dynamics, the Afghan Taliban, an ideological ally and longtime consumer of the TTP, is in the using seat after signing a preliminary cope with the U.S. in late February. This additionally works within the desire of the TTP, as Pakistan will prioritize more desirable members of the family with the Taliban and its allied Haqqani network in a bid to hold strategic influence in Afghanistan upon the U.S. withdrawal. In doing so, it is going to should fail to spot the Afghan Taliban-TTP symbiosis and the TTP's rebuilding close the Afghan border, exacerbated by means of confidence in the security institution in Islamabad that intelligence-based operations will serve to stay away from the TTP from doing too a whole lot damage in the country in the meanwhile. The TTP's makes an attempt to come back to its old operational potential additionally has implications for the U.S. battle against al-Qaeda, given the TTP's close relation with the transnational jihadist comm unity. here is exceptionally essential as it is within the activity of each outfits to rebalance the Islamic State's have an impact on in the Afghanistan-Pakistan hall. 

Tarun Nair is an intelligence analyst from Mumbai, India with an activity in safety and geopolitics in the Asia-Pacific location.